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GTA 6 economic impact: the $1 billion launch-day cost to US workplaces, and what Take-Two expects to earn
GTA 6 could cost the US economy about $1 billion in lost output on launch day, Thursday, Nov. 19, 2026, according to an estimate by José García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, who expects young men and remote tech workers to skip work to play. The figure comes from a Spanish radio interview in July 2025, not from a published study, and the widely shared count of 1.5 million missed workdays appeared in later retellings. On the other side of the ledger, Take-Two expects record net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion in the fiscal year that includes the launch, up from $6.72 billion.
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GTA 6 arrives on a Thursday, and one economist puts the price of that at $1 billion in missed work. Here’s where the number comes from, how it adds up and how much Take-Two stands to earn the same week.
Where the $1 billion figure comes from
The estimate belongs to José García Montalvo, a professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. In a Spanish radio interview in July 2025, Montalvo said the United States could lose about $1 billion in output on GTA 6’s launch day because of workers who stay home to play.
Montalvo hasn’t published a paper or a model behind the number, so the $1 billion is a rough, back-of-the-envelope figure. The number went viral again in October 2026, a month before launch.
Who the estimate says stays home
Montalvo pointed to two groups: men aged 18 to 30, the core audience of the series, and tech workers who work from home, where a day off is easier to take without a manager noticing. Economists studying American time-use data have tied better video games to fewer working hours for young men over the past two decades, and the GTA 6 estimate leans on that research.
How the numbers add up
The figure most often paired with the estimate, 1.5 million missed workdays, appeared in later retellings rather than in the interview itself. Taken together, the two numbers work out to about $667 of lost output per absent worker for the day.
Two details shape the real cost. GTA 6 unlocks at midnight ET, or 9 p.m. PT on Wednesday, Nov. 18, as our GTA 6 release time page shows, so many players get a full night of play before the workday starts. And Thursday, Nov. 19, falls exactly one week before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26.
GTA V set the record to beat
Grand Theft Auto V launched on Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2013. Take-Two said the game made more than $800 million in worldwide retail sales in its first 24 hours and passed $1 billion in three days, the fastest any entertainment product had reached that mark. GTA V’s first day alone came close to the $1 billion that the estimate puts on GTA 6’s launch-day absences.
What Take-Two expects to earn
Take-Two’s fiscal year runs from April 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027, and includes the launch. On Aug. 7, the company repeated its forecast of record net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion, up from $6.72 billion the year before, with more than $1 billion in operating cash flow. CEO Strauss Zelnick pointed to “excitement around the November 19th launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.” Take-Two doesn’t report GTA 6 sales on their own, and its next results arrive on Monday, Nov. 9, after the market closes, 10 days before launch.
Before you take Nov. 19 off
GTA 6 costs $79.99 for the Standard Edition and $99.99 for the Ultimate Edition on PS5 and Xbox Series X and S, as our GTA 6 pre-order guide lists. Digital preorders download from Nov. 12, according to our GTA 6 preload page, and the full timeline sits on our GTA 6 release date page.
This page is updated as soon as Take-Two reports GTA 6’s first sales numbers.
FAQ
How much will GTA 6 cost the US economy?
About $1 billion in lost output on launch day, Thursday, Nov. 19, 2026, according to an estimate by economist José García Montalvo. The figure comes from a radio interview, not a published study.
Who is José García Montalvo?
A professor of economics at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, who gave the GTA 6 estimate in a Spanish radio interview in July 2025.
How many people will skip work for GTA 6?
The number in circulation is 1.5 million Americans, which appeared in later retellings of the interview. Paired with the $1 billion estimate, it works out to about $667 of output per missed workday.
Which workers does the estimate point to?
Men aged 18 to 30, the heaviest players of the series, and tech workers who work from home, where a day off is easier to take unnoticed, according to Montalvo.
What day of the week does GTA 6 come out?
Thursday, Nov. 19, 2026. The game unlocks at midnight ET, which is 9 p.m. PT on Wednesday, Nov. 18, so West Coast players can start the evening before.
How much did GTA V make on its first day?
More than $800 million in worldwide retail sales in its first 24 hours after its Sept. 17, 2013, launch, and more than $1 billion in three days, according to Take-Two.
How much does Take-Two expect to make with GTA 6?
Take-Two forecasts record net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion for its fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, which includes the launch, up from $6.72 billion a year earlier. The company doesn’t break out GTA 6 on its own.
How much does GTA 6 cost?
$79.99 for the Standard Edition and $99.99 for the Ultimate Edition on PS5 and Xbox Series X and S. Digital preorders preload from Nov. 12.
When does Take-Two report its next earnings?
Monday, Nov. 9, 2026, after the stock market closes, with a call at 4:30 p.m. ET, 10 days before GTA 6 launches.
How reliable is the $1 billion figure?
It’s a back-of-the-envelope estimate without a published model, and it counts only lost work output, not the money players spend on the game and consoles that week.
Pop quiz
1 questions from this story.
How much did GTA V sell on its first day, according to Take-Two?
Take-Two said GTA V made more than $800 million in worldwide retail sales in its first 24 hours in September 2013.
Your call
Will you take Nov. 19 off for GTA 6?
